The Warren Street Reader

Talkin' baseball and music and anything-else-on-my-mind blues...

Wednesday, January 17, 2007

Players to watch in 2007: 3B

Finding a third baseman who put up big power numbers in 2006 is not difficult. Last season, there were 20 third basemen who hit 20 or more home runs, and a handful who fell just short of the 20-homer plateau. Ty Wiggington hit 24 home runs, for God's sake.

But third is still a position for baseball royalty, statistically speaking: Alex Rodriguez (how it pains me to write it), David Wright, Aramis Ramirez, Troy Glaus and Eric Chavez are but a few. But there is a new crop of young third basemen who should make a big splash in 2007. Here are five, in no particular order, that should soon become household names.

• GARRETT ATKINS •
Colorado Rockies

You gotta love playing in Colorado, where a broken-bat pop-up just may land in the center field bleachers. The Rockies are where hitters go to become Babe Ruth and pitchers go to become unemployed. For hitters, with the sun setting behind the mountains on warm summer evening, Coors Field must look a lot like heaven.

Just ask Todd Helton. Or better yet, ask Atkins, who took advantage of the elevated location of his home park to hammer out a strong season that saw him near the top of almost every offensive category. After a nice little rookie season in 2005 (.289 BA, 13 HRs, 89 RBI), Atkins took a big step forward in 2006: .329 BA, 198 hits, 48 2Bs, 29 HRs, 120 RBI, .409 OBP. It was good enough to land him in a 15th place tie with teammate Matt Holliday in the NL MVP voting.

Ah, and now he enters his fabled "27" year, the age most prognoticators say hitters reach their prime. Now entrenched in a solid Colorado lineup that feature four .300 hitters and plenty of power, Atkins should continue to build on his success. With a great batting eye (Atkins BB/K ratio was an exceptional 79/76) and an ability to hit away from Coors field (14 of his 29 HRs were on the road, to go along with a .313 average), he could even contend for a triple crown.

Hey, it's Colorado. You never know.

• MARK TEAHEN •
Kansas City Royals

Perhaps no hitter in the majors turned their season around last year more impressively than Mark Teahen. Once a prized draft pick of the Oakland A's (and of Moneyball fame), Teahen jumped to the majors in 2005, but struggled mightily against major league pitching. He hit .246 while striking out 107 in 447 at-bats. His power numbers were also weak: seven home runs with a .376 slugging percentage.

And things continued on that track last year, when he finished April with a .219 average, two home runs and a woeful .271 on-base percentage. Only five games into May, the Royals brass had seen enough and sent him back to the minors to work on one of his most glaring weaknesses: pitch selection. Teahen had never been one to take a walk, and his on-base percentage was awful because of it.

But while a month in Omaha may sound like purgatory for the rest of us, Teahen used it to turn his career around. He came back in June to hit .305 for the month, raising his average from .195 to .252. In July, he exploded, hitting .319 with seven home runs and a robust .442 on-base percentage. More importantly, he walked 20 times in July (half of his 2005 total!) and had nine multi-hit games. He continued hitting in August, batting .317 for the month with five three-hit games and two four-hit games.

But it all ended on Sept. 6, when Teahen opted to have season-ending surgery on a torn labrum in his right shoulder. His final stats in 109 games: 393 AB, 114 hits, 18 HR, 69 RBI, 10 SB, .292 AVG.

Given a healthy recovery from surgery, I expect Teahen to emerge as a star this year. Whether he remains at third base, that is another story...

• RYAN ZIMMERMAN •
Washington Nationals

It's hard to remain unnoticed when you drive in 110 runs in your rookie year when you are only 21 and have not played any minor league ball, but Zimmerman is still considered one of those under the radar guys. Why? Maybe it is because he has played only one year in the majors. Maybe it is because he plays in the NL East, where David Wright and Miguel Cabrera hog all the hot corner attention (maybe Zimmerman would emerge from the shadows if USAir named a shuttle out of Reagan National after him). Maybe it is because, like the Expos, nobody really gives a crap about the Nationals.

Whatever the reason, his anonymity will soon be a thing of the past. After drafting Zimmerman out of UVA in the 2005 draft, the Nationals last year were rewarded with a stellar first season from their prized third baseman: .287 AVG., 176 hits, 20 HR, 110 RBI, .419 OBP. Had it not been for Hanley Ramirez and four measly votes, Zimmerman would be your reigning NL Rookie of the Year.

At only 22, he now must handle the pressure of both fighting off a sophomore slump while emerging as the clubhouse leader everyone in Capitol City wants him to become. A natural born hitter who uses the expansive RFK Stadium outfield to his advantage, expect Zimmerman to step up to the challenges. They say young hitters parlay doubles into home runs as they develop, and if that is true, Zimmerman should convert some of his 47 doubles in 2006 into round-trippers this year. A 30+ home run season should be around the corner, given the Nationals find someone to protect him in the lineup.

• WILSON BETEMIT •
Los Angeles Dodgers

Just give this kid a chance! It seems to me the Braves, who once thought the world of Betemit, gave up on him too soon by trading him to the Dodgers. He always projected to hit huge home runs, and was once one of Saint Peter Gammons' favorite prospects. He seemed destined to become the next Aramis Ramirez or, at the very least, resemble a previous Ddoger third base prospect, Adrian Beltre.

And it kind of looked like he would. In limited at bats in 2005, Betemit hit .305 with four home runs. With more playing time and natural development, he projected to hit for a healthy average and resepectable power numbers. But the Braves mostly used him off the bench in a pinch hitting role, and looking ofr pitching, eventually traded Betemit to LA for Danys Baez in August.

Combined with his stats from Atlanta, Betemit finished the season with 18 HRs, 53 RBI and a .263 BA. Now the projected full-time 3B in Dodgerville, he should greatly improve those numbers. He is 26, just about to enter his prime, and could pull a Beltre and jump from mediocrity to a 40+ home run season.

• MIGUEL CABRERA •
Florida Marlins

Cabrera doesn't really belong on this list because everyone aleady knows about him, and the only reason why he is has more to do with me wanting to gush over not only his statistics but about his potential, which seems practically limitless. Remember, Cabrera is only 23 and has already had THREE seasons with at least 112 RBI. He helped beat the Yankees in the 2003 World Series as a 20-year old. He has never hit lower than .294, and last season, he saw his OBP soar 55 points to .430.

Which is all a way of saying this kid is a monster in the making, and one of these days he is going to put a season that defies explanation. I thought he might take a step back last year after the Marlins' front office got rid of everybody not named Cabrera and started a lineup full of rookies, but he responded with his most impressive performace yet, hitting .339 while simultaneously increasing his walk total and reducing his strikeouts. It was another step towards some as yet imaginary season where he hit 45 HRs, drives in 140 runs and hits .350.

And it could happen in 2007.

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