American League East: House of the Rising Sun

So I could sit here and brag about the many accuracies and similarities in my playoff simulations compared to what actually happened on Saturday and Sunday, but I know you are already impressed. And don't worry, I'll be simulating the Pats-Colts and Saints-Bears soon enough. But for now, I want to talk some baseball.

More specifically, Japanese baseball players coming to America. Three new Japanese players expected to make significant impacts are starting their MLB careers this year, throwing themselves into the boiling cauldron of the AL East. We all know about Daisuke Matsuzaka, but what impacts will Kei Igawa and Akinori Iwamura have? Who are Kei Igawa and Akinori Iwamura you ask?

• Akinori Iwamura •
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Third Base

Iwamura may not have received even a quarter of the fanfare Matsuzaka, Hideki Matsui or Ichiro received when they hopped the Pacific to play ball in America, but that does not mean Iwamura is an afterthought. This slugging third baseman averaged 35 home runs over the past three years for the Yakult Swallows, and at only 27, is just entering his prime. He is currently the leading candidate to take over the hot corner now that Aubrey Huff is gone. Talented but slow-to-develop prospect B.J. Upton is Iwamura's biggest obstacle to being an everyday player.

But what to expect of Iwamura in terms of power numbers? While there is no way to really know how well he will translate, looking at how Matsui, Kenji Johjima, Ichiro and even White Sox second basbeman Tadahito Iguchi fared in their first season in America is a good place to start. Each player came to the States established stars in Japan, backed by gaudy numbers. Matsui cranked 50 home runs in his last Japanese League season, Johjima had three 30+ home run seasons under his belt when he left for Seattle, Iguchi averaged 20-25 home runs a season and even Ichiro, who already had established himself as the most popular ball player since Sadahara Oh, had several seasons with over 20 round-trippers.

But while stars in Japan, these four hitters needed time to adjust, and you can bet Iwamura will too. Matsui brought a 50-home run season to Yankee Stadium, but that power was somewhat lost in translation, and he settled for only 16 HRs in his first year. His RBI totals, however, did not suffer, and he finished with a respectable .287 average. Johjima hit an impressive 18 home runs in his first season, Iguchi hit 15 and 18 in his first two seasons and Ichiro has averaged eight a season and peaked two years ago at 15 (although, some say he chooses not to hit home runs, and that if he wanted, he could knock out 25 annually).

So while you shouldn't expect Iwamura to hit 44 home runs or drive in 103 runs, like he did in 2004, I would not be surprised if he hit 23 home runs and drove in 71, like he did in 2002 at the age of 23. And factoring in that he will also hit in perhaps the toughest division in baseball and have to face, on a regular basis, the likes of Matsuzaka, Mike Mussina, Curt Schilling, Roy Halladay, Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte, Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett and perhaps even Roger Clemens, it would be quite an accomplishment if he hit over .300.

• Kei Igawa •
New York Yankees
Starting Pitcher

If Jose Contreras and Javier Vasquez were still Yankees, the Bombers could truly boast having maybe the most intriguingly International pitching staff ever. Not that Igawa's addition doesn't help them move towards that distinction, but think about it: The rotation alone would feature an American, Puerto Rican, Cuban, Taiwanese and Japanese. They would have to relocate the United Nations to the Bronx.

But I digress. Igawa is intriguing on several levels, not the least being the fact that hs is the first Japanese pitcher the Yanks have gone after since Steinbrenner all but ran "fat toad" Hideki Irabu out of the Majors. With that failed experiment far enough behind them, the Yankees are hoping Igawa can fill in the bullpen (he is a lefty) or provide insurance for Carl Pavano should he not be ready to occupy the fifth spot in the rotation. As a starter for the Hanshin Tigers last year, "Iron Nerves" went 13-9 with a 3.11 ERA, and he went 20-5 with a 2.80 ERA only three years ago. With numbers like that, expect to see a lot of Igawa next season toeing the mound for NY.

• Digging around the old www the other day, I found an interesting thread from 2001 about Daisuke Matsuzaka. Take a look - it was extremely positive (the writer could not be any more effusive) and while it was written by an obviously smitten baseball fan, it got me thinking: I wonder if Esptein & Co. read this? After all, they may have been more inclined to throw $103 million at someone who garners such praise like:

"For the first time since... well, since ever ... the shabbier league has a star to rival anyone on the Giants or anybody else in the prestigious Central League. Ichiro, Nomo, Ochiai, Nomura, Kaneda -- you can go back into Pacific League lore as far as you want -- there has never been anyone with the glitz of Matsuzaka."